⏱ The season in 30 seconds
- World crop: about 39 million tonnes, 3.4% below 2025, down from a 40.75-million-tonne forecast in February.
- China explains the fall. Its 1.85-million-tonne cut is bigger than the whole world decline; Italy grew and California held its contract.
- Southern Europe had a hot, low-Brix year, so each tonne of fruit made less paste than usual.
- Egypt held its forecast all summer and trimmed 6% only because growers planted less.
Egypt: Steady, Then a Planned Cut
Egypt's forecast held at 800,000 tonnes from February to the end of July, and factories ran normally through a July of 39–40 °C. The 25 September update set it at 752,000 tonnes (−6%) because growers planted about 6% less summer area in response to higher fertiliser, pest-control and energy costs — a planting decision, not a loss in the field. Brix averaged 4.9, in line with the Mediterranean. The Nili crop (العروة النيلية, al-urwa al-niliya) now reaches factories, followed by the winter crop — the months when Northern Hemisphere plants are closed.
China, Not the Mediterranean, Drove the Decline
Take China out and the rest of the world is roughly flat. Italy rose from 5.7 to 6.35 million tonnes on a larger planted area, and California is finishing close to its 10.0-million-short-ton contract despite its smallest planting in 50 years. The pressure elsewhere was real but regional: Türkiye lost late-crop yield as its regions peaked at the same time, and France, Ukraine, Brazil and Chile all finished lower.
Heat, Mites and Low Brix
Successive heatwaves — 42 °C in Hungary, 49 °C in Tunisia, five in France — brought flower abortion, sunburn and fast ripening that crowded harvests into shorter windows. Late storms then hit Portugal and northern Italy; in Basilicata, hail on 17 September destroyed 12 hectares of late long tomatoes grown for peeled processing, too late to replant. In Emilia-Romagna, June hail and storms cut organic yields by at least 35% in Ravenna and Ferrara, which grow half of Italy's organic processing tomato; conventional crops held up across the wider region. Tomato russet mite spread in Spain, France and Bulgaria, where growers have fewer tools to control it (our Extremadura report).
Why Brix matters: on soluble solids alone, a tonne of 28 °Bx paste takes about 5.8 tonnes of fruit at 4.8 °Bx against 5.5 tonnes at 5.1 °Bx — about 6% more raw material. Finished paste is tighter than the fresh-tonne headline suggests.
2027 Is Already Taking Shape
The Southern Hemisphere is planting less: Argentina about 4,700 hectares (from 5,120), Chile roughly 10% less area. In Spain, Extremadura's cooperatives say they may advise members not to plant in 2027 unless contracts cover costs, and California is in its third year of acreage discipline. In northern Italy, the industry's interprofessional body has put irrigation water, input costs and the shrinking list of authorised crop-protection products at the top of its agenda. Water is the good news — reservoirs in Spain and southern Italy are full.
What Buyers Should Do Now
- Treat early forecasts as ranges — this year's moved by 1.75 million tonnes.
- Ask for Brix, colour and consistency on every COA in a low-Brix year.
- Spread season risk, not only country risk — a second crop or hemisphere covers early closures.
- Follow this winter's contract rounds in Spain, California and the Southern Hemisphere.
Full origin-by-origin forecast table
| Origin | First Forecast | Latest | Change | Main Driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇬 | Egypt | 800,000 t (Feb) | 752,000 t | −6% | Summer area −6% on input costs · Brix 4.9 |
| 🇮🇹 | Italy | 5.7M t (Feb) | 6.35M t | +11% | Larger planted area · Brix below average |
| 🇪🇸 | Spain | 2.6M t (Feb) · 2.75M t (Mar) | ~2.6M t | −5% vs Mar | Heatwaves, mites, hail |
| 🇹🇷 | Türkiye | 2.5–2.6M t (Feb) | 2.2M t | −12 to −15% | Late-crop yields · regions peaked together |
| 🇮🇷 | Iran | ~1.7M t (Feb) | 1.7M t | — | Water shortage · war conditions |
| 🇵🇹 | Portugal | 1.3M t (Feb) | 1.3M t | Held | Lowest Brix in 25 years · may finish lower |
| 🇺🇦 | Ukraine | 550,000 t (Feb) | 500,000 t | −9% | Late revision · attacks interrupting work |
| 🇬🇷 | Greece | 450,000 t (Feb) | 440,000 t | −2% | Storm damage · very good colour |
| 🇫🇷 | France | 150–160,000 t (Feb) | 135–136,000 t | ≈−13% | Five heatwaves · mites · smaller area |
| 🇺🇸 | California | 8.89M t (Feb) | 9.07M t contracted | +2% | Slightly above estimate · −10% vs 2025 |
| 🇨🇳 | China | 7.0M t (Feb) | 5.15M t | −26% | Low planting enthusiasm, El Niño heat, water limits |
| 🇧🇷 | Brazil | 1.5M t (Feb) | 1.34M t | −11% | Heavy rain · disease |
| 🇨🇱 | Chile | 1.4M t (Jan) | ~1.2M t | −14% | Mid-March and mid-April rains |
| 🇹🇳 | Tunisia | — | 836,000 t processed | — | Held intake through a 45–49 °C heatwave |
Saporina's Tomato Products
Saporina's Egyptian tomato range draws on both the winter and summer seasons: paste, passata, pizza sauce, whole peeled, chopped, diced, powder, sun-dried and ketchup, in aseptic bulk, A10 and A12 cans, retail and private-label formats.
📩 Talk to Us About 2026/27 Supply
Specifications, certificates of analysis and samples available on request.